Mystery Supply Chests: rare rewards are not a savings plan

What the recording actually tests

The video starts with 1,329 Mystery Supply Chests and inspects the displayed reward information before opening them. Its description lists the 5,000-gem reward at 0.01% per chest. Treat that as the recorded rate, not a permanent guarantee for every future version.

The recorded opening did not produce the 5,000-gem reward. That is one observed session, not evidence that the listed reward is impossible.

A small per-chest chance stays uncertain

If each chest is an independent draw with probability 0.0001, the chance of at least one success in 1,329 openings is 1 − (1 − 0.0001)^1329, approximately 12.45%. The corresponding chance of no success is about 87.55%.

This calculation assumes independent, unchanged odds. It does not establish a pity system, a guaranteed number of openings or improved odds after a losing streak.

Count the rewards you receive, not the jackpot you want

The session also shows ordinary materials, medals and time-saving items. Those rewards can still be useful, but do not include an unclaimed rare payout in an upgrade budget.

Open your current item information panel before deciding how to value a chest. This is an item-opening guide, not a new scheduled event.

A simple chest-opening checklist

• Read the current reward table and any stated guarantees.
• Set a spending limit before opening or buying more chests.
• Record the actual result separately from the expected value.
• Treat a very rare reward as a bonus rather than a source of guaranteed gems.